The motor rally - 2007
Oleg Golikov
The 2007 year demonstrated some stage of stability: The market showed the growth of 50% as before, but now it develops in a more stable manner. The whole range of events of 2007 already had a great effect on the development of Kazakhstani auto-market or will have effect in the near future. There was no grand event which would have claimed to the title of the deal of the year, as well as to the title of the disparagement of the year. In connection with the difficulties in the credit sphere, a serious decline in the sales of absolutely all the suppliers in the republic could be seen in the second half year, especially in the last two months of the year and the losses made up from 30 to 60 percent compared to the volume of realization in the first half year. Due to this fact, the dealers had to correct their plans of sales for 2007 as well as for 2008 and their planned investments which includes publicity.
But at the same time the 2007 wasn’t stingy of new car models: Not less than two new models appeared on the market every month. The aggressive Audi R8, the newest Volkswagen Tiguan, Toyota Land Cruiser 200, Ford Mondeo, Mitsubishi Pajero, Lancer and Outlander XL, Subaru Impreza, C-class Mercedes, Nissan X-trail and Qashqai should be considered as the most interesting new models of the year. But if the Audi R8, the tremendous sports car which most probably won’t be available for the most of the customers, demonstrates the peculiar wish of each driver about the car in general, then the other models are quite the contrary. Namely these models began their ceremonial procession through Kazakhstan in 2007, and undoubtedly, that they will continue it in 2008 as well. The reasons for the great demand on these models include novelty, popularity, the performance quality and after-sale service. Moreover, they are permanent; therefore there is no need for dealers to form the taste of a consumer and teach again or rearrange him to the interest for the new models.
The representations
I think that the establishment of representations is one of the more important factors which are characterized by the amount of confidence in the development of the motor-car business in one or another country. The fact that the foreign companies have examined the Kazakhstani realities for so long time, have been careful in their plans and have made calculations and in the end have seen the positive tendencies, became evident in the opening of the representations of Nissan, GM, Rikom-Kaz (Rolf with Mitsubishi brand) and Nokian Tyres (following the establishment of Toyota in 2006) in Kazakhstan in 2007. Moreover Suzuki brand was officially brought to the market. Two automobile companies “Allur Auto” and “Bipek Auto” have become the dealers of “ITOCHU” firm representing the Suzuki brand in Kazakhstan. All these things show the level of evaluation of dynamic and firm development of the country’s market by the world’s leading car and tire manufacturers.
The manufacture
Kazakhstan draws attention with its beneficial location, the leading figures among the Central-Asian countries in the field of economic development, political stability and gigantic possibilities in the sphere of car sales.
At the present time, the establishment of huge complexes for sales and services of the new cars became exigency in republic. And such complexes are placed in operation every year. But it is extremely less! Especially in the biggest city of the country Almaty. Yet not all the multi-brand companies have enough number of dealership centers. And not all the auto-manufacturers compromise with the Kazakshtani dealers over the formation of prices, delivery of cars and preferences. And in its turn this contributes to the so-called “shady dealers” who act without taking into account the interests of manufacturers. Therefore, in Kazakhstan, it is more profitable to purvey the “grey” cars at the present time. It doesn’t require the huge expenses for the education of personnel and the construction of the modern auto-centers which meet the standards of concerns.
At the same time, considering the endless possibilities of auto-market, practically for all the auto-manufacturers, Kazakhstan is priority in Central Asia. It is not by chance that it was announced about the construction of the plant of Nissan in Astana in 2007,while the car factory Asia Auto in Ust-Kamenogorsk has already organized the serial production of the cars of Chevrolet: Captiva, Lacetti, Epica and Skoda: Superb and Octavia Tour.
Moreover, there was an opening of bus factory Daewoo Bus Kazakhstan which will manufacture the buses of DAEWOO on the basis of incomplete vehicle manufacturer “SemAZ”. The capacity of the factory is estimated to manufacture 1200 buses a year.
The roads
The construction and the repair of the roads which began in 2005-2006 continued in 2007 as well. It is unlikely that someone hasn’t noted it. Driving has become considerably more pleasing. As for the construction of junctions, then it is a true decision, but somewhat late response to the growing number of cars in geometric series on the roads of city, but it is effective for the time-being. Ten junctions were built in the South capital only for 2007, which considerably unloaded some more problematic districts of the car routes. According to the promises of city authorities and road workers, the work in this field would continue in 2008. Moreover, the construction of detour road around Almaty would begin.
The beginning of struggle for ecology
A series of measures on the stimulation of the updating procedure and raising the qualitative level of vehicle exploitation was considered in the Ministry of Transport and Communications of Republic of Kazakhstan in 2007.
It is noted that there is a high level of vehicle exhaustion. For example, the specific weight of the passenger cars, which are in the exploitation over 12 years, makes up 67,2%. The given figure for the trucks and special cars reaches 83,9%, for the buses – 56,6%.
The exploitation of the obsolete vehicles which has the low technical level leads not only to the lowering of economic efficiency, but also has negative effect on the environment. On this point, the special draft of State’s decree “About the approval of technical regulations which impose requirements on the emission of harmful substances by the vehicles manufactured in the territory of Republic of Kazakhstan” has been prepared.
This bill puts the limitations on the delivery of used cars which don’t meet the standards of Euro-2.
“The right-handed”…
In 2006 the concept of limiting the number of vehicles in the big cities appeared. In some way it should be limited, and the struggle began against the right-wheeled cars which are so uncomfortable in our right-side roads. As a result, the government took quite a wise decision which became liberal reply to the most of protesting statements from the direction of the owners of the cars with the wheel on the right side. In 2007 the decision was taken that allowed the exploitation of the vehicles, already registered in the Road police, up to their full exhaustion, which is certainly better than the full prohibition on the exploitation of the cars, fully suitable for using.
...and others with them
The market participants, who had imported the “right-handed” cars into the country so actively, reoriented to the import of used cars from USA and Europe quite rapidly. As a result, the number of second-hand cars hasn’t decreased! The major constituent in the competition of new cars, imported by the official dealers with the auto-stuff, brought by innumerable number of sellers, are still the rules of game on the market, which have been established decades ago. Certainly, they are not in benefit of official dealers! The following figures justify it: About the 90% of old cars with the age of 8-15 years are realized and bought. We can take Russia for the comparison where the limits on the import of used cars above 7 years have been valid already for 5 years, the situation is very different-80% of new cars are realized while the realization of used cars make up just 20%.
The amendments in Rules of the Road
The amendments and changes were made in Rules of the Road (RR) last year. The innovations were related practically to all the parts of RR. They are aimed at consolidation of road security by making the changes in the legislation and technological progress.
The special attention was given to the violations on the crossroads and traffic lights. Now the drivers are prohibited to go at the yellow signal. “Even if the driver cannot stop the vehicle without resorting to emergency brake application”, is said in the addenda to RR.
And now in order to increase the traffic capacity of the roads and decrease the number of “jams”, it is prohibited to stop the vehicle nearer than 15 metres from the crossroad’s edge (it had been 5 metres before) from this time onwards.
Moreover now the vehicle is tabooed if the different tires are set in one of the axes of vehicle (for example, the refractory-faced and non-refractory-faced, the new and restored ones, the winter and the summer ones). The norms of toning the shields are defined concretely-now it is banned to layer any kind of layers despite their optical transmission on the windshields and side shields. In addition, there appeared a new point which says that the drivers in equal rights with the pedestrians shouldn’t leave their garbage and other dangerous objects for the traffic on the traffic way. The administrative measures – penalties would be applied to such infringers.
The most important thing is the fact that the penalties are raised. At the same time, it is connected with the increase of monthly calculated index which reached to 1030 tenges. Now infringes would be fined about 1 or 2 MCI for their violations on the crossroads. They would be fined in sum of 515 or 1030 tenges for the disabled car (different tires). The drivers would have to pay the half of MCI to the treasury for the garbage. But if it is the first case of the driver, then the inspector can give him just a warning.
The new edition of compulsory insurance agreement
The 2007 was marked with the changes in the Law “About the compulsory insurance of civil responsibility of the vehicle owners” which was valid since the 1st July of 2003.
First of all the old edition hasn’t satisfied the insurance companies because it wasn’t mentioned about many problems arising in the real work in the sphere of compulsory auto-insurance in it. Secondly the previous Law had initially put the vehicle owners in the unprofitable position practically in any case with the insurers. The amendments were needed here in order to balance the relations.
The major points:
a) The insurance cost is increased.
Article №19 “The size of insurance premium” is now given in details in the following wording:
“1. The base insurance premium in which the rates established by the points 3-10 of the present article are used depending on the place of registration of vehicle, the model of a vehicle, the age and the driving record of the insured, the term of the vehicle’s exploitation and the presence or absence of the insurance events because of the people, whose civil responsibilities were insured in the validity of the previous agreement about the compulsory insurance of civil liabilities of the vehicle owners (the system “Bonus-malus)”.
b) The base insurance premium is established in sum of 1,9 monthly calculated index.
c) The rates of the vehicle registration according to the territory are established subject to the territory of registration of the vehicle. Certainly, the highest rates are in Almaty and Astana - 2,96 and 2,2 accordingly!
The licensing of auto-schools
In 2007 many auto-schools had to stop their existence. In the first place, they resembled the auto-school neither outwardly nor in the origin.
The training: the theoretical part as well as the practical part was held in a very bad way and sometimes “the pilots of extra-class”, who have never been sitting before the wheel of a car in their lives, graduated from the walls of below stairs. As a result, after the numerous inspections, the evaluation of experience and competence of the teachers, there have been left only those schools which met their name, mainly which met the purpose of their establishment. And there is a hope that after getting the precious driving licenses, the graduates of auto-schools would be able to drive not only across the straight line, but also observe the rules of the traffic while making the transpositions and turns.
The result
While the multi-brand auto-companies are completing the division of car market of two capitals, the major tendency in 2008 would most probably be the further importing of the popular models into the regions. This direction is perspective extremely and the funds invested in it would prove to be correct.
There wasn’t a special advancement in 2007 as it could be expected, but the consolidation and the development of positions of the car business sector seemed to have been developing.
We can say the following things as a prediction. In 2008 Kazakhstan would continue to show the growth of new cars on the market. As the analysts predict, there would be a growth in the volume of sales to 30-40%. However we shouldn’t expect such growth as in 2005-2006 because the market would begin to stabilize. The secondary market would continue its development as well. The new brands: Opel, Hammer and Honda would become the players on the official market. The Chinese auto-manufacturers would claim to the positions strongly.
Most of the representations have their plans and marketing strategies for advancing the models and the volume of their own production in Kazakhstan. Most probably, the players have already determined the line of models, integration and the number of cars for the coming year. Next year, most likely would be more or less stable, but the real game in the huge numbers would begin in 2009. There would be changes in the companies. The intensive development would begin following the extensive. And then the competition of the brand would be measured not by the volume of sales, but by the economic efficiency of the business as a whole.