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DECLINE OF “PAX AMERICANA” ERA
Abu Aliyev
Unlike an ordinary life full of day-to-day trivial events, the political life is marked by a number of jerks – from one symbolic event until another one. A recent conflict in the North Caucasus followed by Moscow’s recognition of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence have exposed profound contradictions between the US and Russia. After almost 20 years of thaw in relationships initiated by Mikhail Gorbachev, an entirely different period has begun. In the West this turn-up is already referred to as a rollback to the “cold war”. But sooner or later this would have happened – both are too magnificent powers having different approaches to established status-quo.
Now it is not important who gave the idea to Mikhail Saakashvili to begin aggression against South Ossetia, or this has been a freak or personal ambition of the Georgian president. Direct consequences of the conflict are thousands of victims among soldiers and civilian population, destroyed towns, humanitarian disaster, stupendous economic losses. Among indirect consequences are a slap in the face of Tbilisi, anti-Russian hysteria in the West, information war, and diplomatic disputes within the walls of the UNO, EU and NATO.
The world is gradually but steadily falling back to the times of block thinking. South Ossetia is only the first episode that is sure to be continued. This renewed old confrontation has its distinctive features as well as similarities compared to the previous periods. The main common feature is confrontation between the former antagonists – Washington and Moscow as a formal representative of the USSR. Based on this, let us try to imagine a global layout of strategic, military, political, and economic forces.
Megalomania
Discussing Russia’s specific mission, both the authorities and the society have always had great-power ambitions. Moscow once acted as the Third Rome, then a beacon for proletarians from all the countries. No wonder that the current way to revival of the “double-headed eagle” is seen through return of the lost position in the “near abroad”. The Kremlin will never put up with the role of an outsider in the global and especially Eurasian affairs. The statement made by “Statfor” analytical centre being close to the White House causes alert: «Russia’s attempts to restore its status of a world power and America’s willingness to spread its influence to the former USSR states will inevitably result in a serious conflict of interests». And the first test of strength has already occurred.
By boxing Georgia’s ears, Russia has made it clear that from now on it is not going to respond to Western reproof when battling for its interests. By unilateral recognition of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence, it deprived Washington and Brussels of monopoly for interpretation and taking such decisions. There is no doubt that such defiant behaviour has transformed Kremlin into a kind of “band of bad guys”, but did not isolate it. “Russia cannot be isolated. It is not Burkina Faso”, said Victor Kremenyuk, Deputy Director of Institute of USA and Canada at the Russian Academy of Sciences. – After all, we have invested over 100 billion dollars into the bonds issued by American government. So how can we be isolated? One can only speak about the terms of co-existence”.
In the event that Western powers will dare to launch a “cold war” against Russia, we, judging by the statements of the Russian authorities, will find an adequate response. Moreover, there are other powerful international organizations besides NATO. For example, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Apart from Russia, its members are China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and among the observers are India, Iran, Mongolia, and Pakistan. The fact that this list includes four countries that have nuclear weapons – China, Russia, India, and Pakistan, – makes the Shanghai Cooperation Organization not only a powerful organization but a real counterbalance of NATO bloc.
Nonetheless, Moscow keeps stressing its interest in continuation of the dialog with both Washington and the European Union, though without former diktat.
“Our attitude to cooperation with NATO will be pragmatic, - states Dmitry Rogozin, resident representative of Russia in NATO. – Nobody is going to lay the ax to the root – so far we only talk about temporary suspension of cooperation on the level of defense ministries. But we have established cooperation on different levels: political dialog; narco-projects, including training of narco-police officers for Afghanistan; on the level of Ministries of Internal Affairs and special services (fight against international terrorism); in the scientific sphere, etc. As a matter of fact, a good half of our government is linked with the North Atlantic Alliance within the framework of various programs and projects. What is happening now is suspension of military cooperation. This means there will be no military exchanges, delegations, joint maneuvers. Nevertheless, this decision will not be in force for ever, but until further notice. And it will be given quite soon, when the political authorities of the country have evaluated a whole set of questions pertaining to relationships with the alliance”.
Yankees go home!
The USA that has completely got the feel of its role of pacemaker in international relations within the past 17 years has reacted to Moscow demarche with obvious annoyance – following the tradition of US-Soviet confrontation. From that side of Atlantics voices were heard in favor of showing Russia “its place” and arranging general obstruction. However, this signal made by the White House, that seemed to have been taken up at first by NATO partners and G8 (without Russia), began to lose the initial strength.
Modification of the political map of the world that started with the collapse of the socialist camp is going on and on. Power No. 1 seems to continue setting the tone. The attorneys of the established status quo find this circumstance quite reasonable: «In the world where the US will not dominate, there will be more violence and disorder, less democracy and economic welfare, than in the world where the US can make greater impact on settlement of global issues compared to any other country». But historic hegemony depraves rather than imposes responsibility and makes take care of the fortunes of nations. Unfortunately, America, like many others, did not manage to resist the temptations arising from this status. It is trying to dictate the terms from the position of strength which does not follow any laws. The other countries can hardly put up with such behavior. And it is also doubtful whether the world system with deposed center of gravity is capable of sustained developing.
Today the US strategy crisis is quite obvious. First of all, behavioral stereotypes and ins and outs of ubiquitous activity are no more trustworthy. Particularly, what is hidden behind the façade of “democratic intervention”. Second, everyone can see that the States are not always able to control the situations they have created, whether in Afghanistan, the Middle East or the Balkans. A similar situation was experienced by the Great British Empire at the end of XIX century. London had base stations all around the world, the management resources were exhausted quite rapidly.
Therefore, a transition period is approaching, when the term of the solitary Star-Spangled Banner will expire. Fortune’s wheel is turning inexorably. So hegemony cannot be constant – historically it changed hands. But under the current circumstances there is no apparent candidate to substitute Americans. So we can talk about several poles of influence that will lay the basis for a new principle of the universe – multi-polar.
Not Every Friendship Leads to Sharing Things
Europe reacted quite negatively to Medvedev’s decision to recognize Sukhumi and Tskhinvali as international subjects. Even “closer” Germany from the lips of Angela Merkel regarded this decision as “unacceptable”. Though after the September summit, the European Union leaders declined the US persistent proposal to isolate Russia. Neither the sharp attacks by London – the most zealous champion of American interests in the Old World nor the calls made by smaller Poland and Baltic republics helped. Mister Saakashvili was not invited to the summit at all.
“Nobody is interested in the
