Obama’s America on the crossroads

Rasul Jumaly

Only a year ago, unknown dark-skinned guy from Chicago today has been proclaimed as the 44th president of the most powerful country in the world. Shocking victory of Barack Hussein Obama sparked storm of emotions in the hearts of all Americans, rich and poor, white and colored, young and old, inspired hope for a better life and restore the image “of the country with greatest opportunities». U.S. citizens made their choice and there is nothing unnatural in that.
Fundamental mistakes of outgoing administration in national affairs, failures in foreign policy, it all cost the economy very much. In 2000th and 2008th America there is huge gap. In the early presidency of George W. Bush States were brought not just in the way of leading world power, the mainstay of «democratic values», it enjoyed a high international standing, and not just among the many allies around the world. But in just eight years because of Texas guy situation has radically changed. America lost the respect, economic power of the West seemed unsinkable but it gave a leak, the dollar as the global payment unit rapidly losses its position, 300-million population of the richest country has to tight their belts and save on everything.
Despite the optimistic comments of Western analysts, scion of Kenyan Muslims and American Protestants won a very difficult legacy. There is a great skepticism whether he will be able to cope with situation. And it is not only because there are lots of problems to solve or Obama and his advisers do not have enough experience, will and determination to overcome challenges. General fact is that America today is inherently doomed to slide down. And Bush, who today is not criticized and cursed perhaps only by lazy ones, to a large extent is not to be blamed for the troubles of the U.S. Rather; he only speeded up what should have happened. That is the logic of the history, when any empire after the designated stage and power is experiencing a flourishing growth, then stagnation and later decline. In some cases, such empire turns into country of second importance, decreasing their level of arrogance and conceit, while others - under the weight of their own power crumble like a cards house. 
If you remember the unenviable fate of the Soviet Union, which within 5-7 years, gone into oblivion, we could make a lot of parallels with what States are experiencing now. The collapse of the Soviet Union took place not because of depletion from the confrontation with imperialism, but above all, because of internal reasons. In this regard, Bush might well be compared with Leonid Brezhnev and Obama Jr. with Mikhail Gorbachev. In the sense that, if the first moved with general momentum and did not want to change anything when they have had much chances, the second, seen as charming reformer, started acting too late, when already the course of things, like a train falling from the rails impossible to stop.
When will star-striped flag will be lowered from the flagpole world of autocracy is hard to say. US have great strength reserves but not as much as many tend to believe. But thinking about what should rest of the world wait from imminent and prolonged agony of the US is appropriate and timely.
 Either way, Barack Obama will have to keep a good face at the bad game, because any of his moves taken to slow down US devaluation is doomed to fail. Such situation also exists in chess game when any move taken will only worse off your position. With the high degree of probability we can predict the White House’s troop withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. True, not at the time period that Obama promised during the election marathon since at best, this will take two to three years. As you know it is easy to start the war but not to win it completely. So even if troops will be called back home, it will turn out that Americans not only wasted enormous funds in this adventure, lost a lot of soldiers and lost their control over the flow of «black gold» from the Persian earnings, but remnants of their international reputation.
The very next day after the withdrawal of US troops, but in reality run away of US army from failed «islands of democracy» in the Near and Middle East, local puppet regimes will be destroyed by rebels, who are fixing their wounds and are quietly waiting for their time. One thing could be said with certainty - the new rulers in Iraq and Afghanistan will come to power on the crest of anti-American wave, on the urges to take revenge and drown in the blood an overseas «empire of evil». Similar trends will be strongly developing in other regional countries as well, especially in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, Somalia and Algeria. In this case main US ally Israel, located in the heart of Muslim world, will be in very difficult situation.
So, in the case of Afghanistan, Taliban will likely come to power, following the example of how, after the withdrawal of the so-called «limited contingent» of the Soviet army in February 1986, the Moscow representative Najibullah was executed in the central square of Kabul. At that time Americans gloated about this for long time, but now this boomerang threatens to attacks on their own heads. In doing so, the mere restoration of the Islamist regime in Afghanistan has a direct threat to adjacent countries and regions, including the secular Kazakhstan
 In Iraq, the situation could grow even more florid and dramatic. And it is not just about civil war, which could overwhelm poor long-suffering country. It threatens to simply break into several parts, and have internal wars. To begin with, the Shiite majority, which is mainly concentrated in the south and east, will try to keep their privileged position, which was encouraged by Americans during the occupation, against the peak of almost 20-year dictatorship of Sunni headed by Saddam Hussein. Failing that, Ayatollah will take more than half of the country with the prospect of accession to the world’s bastion of Shiism - Iran
 As for the Kurds, who inhabit the northern provinces of Iraq, they have long been carrying out the idea of building a nation state. If it becomes true, the entire region will be at risk of being the zone of sporadic military actions against Kurdish separatists: Turkey with the 15-million Kurdish Diaspora, and Syria, where live about 4 million Kurds, and Iran, where there are 5 million people identify themselves to the people without the right to make their own State.
In the end Sunnis will be at the very poor condition, they traditionally inhabit the central and northern Iraq. And as for management exclusion from the state, and in relation to economic vulnerability, since all the rich oil fields are located in the zone Shiites and Kurds control. 
Keep analyzing we can say that big headache for the new American administration will be the relationship with China and Russia. Moreover, both are considered by the White House as most dangerous rivals the US in the fight for global leadership palm. China is already de facto global economy #2 and is moving to take a strategic strip - by the year 2020 pushing off Americans from the podium. Chinese calculations are simple and traditionally pragmatic. Under pretension of building multipolar world instead of Pax-Americana they are going to open an era of Pax-China. Today, even in official Chinese publications such as «Zhenmin Zhiboa», are often found such statements as «XXI century will belong to heirs of Huandi». And once again returning to Central Asian affairs, in particular to Kazakhstan, in such case Taliban threats from the south will seem as the minor issue. 
 Regarding Russia, the current leaders also are not going to be satisfied with the role of statistics in international affairs, as it would like to be seen from the side of the Potomac River. Moreover, the Kremlin has put forward its own claims for the world order. We must underline that tenor which is used by newly elected President Dmitry Medvedev, when speaking before the Federal Assembly. Russian leader’s speech was on November 5th, one day after the US elections when the name of the new owner of the White House was already known. By the way, by conclusion of Russian experts majority, Barack Obama in this position much more convenient for Russia than old-age copy of outgoing President John McCain. In these circumstances, everybody expected that Medvedev in his speech will send a clear signal to Washington with willingness for partnership, restoration of constructive dialogue in the relationship. That was not made. The Russian leader highly criticized US international policy, incidentally giving clear instructions to strengthen the military potential of his country, as well as actively discourage militaristic plans of the Americans, including the deployment of missile defense systems in Eastern Europe.
Another important point in Medvedev’s speech was the proposal to amend the constitution, increasing the term of presidency in Russia from the current 4 to 6 years. Many observers saw the initiative as a reverence toward Putin, they underline that these changes are necessary for building a base on his return to presidency. Although, I think, they are not quite right and it is not only because they underestimated Dmitry Medvedev. They also underestimate Putin, for whom the status of master of the Kremlin is not a goal of itself; his priority is strong and authoritative Russia. We can not fail to mention the fact that Medvedev’s initiative promises to be the first change in the constitution since its adoption in 1993, which already honors the Russians. For example, after adoption of Kazakh constitution in 1995 it has been adjusted so many times, one could not even remember all the changes.

Baiden is forecasting disaster 
At the eve of presidential elections in the United States, then Senator and now Vice President Joe Baiden made sensational revelations. Speaking in a narrow range of collecting funds for the campaign and Democrats party members, he said that in the first six months of ruling Obama must expect tough test, comparable perhaps with those that endured by John Kennedy in the 1961-1962. This will be the strongest international crisis, and Obama will have to take tough, unpopular decisions both in foreign and domestic policy.
Baiden in the misty-style of Delphi oracle said that there are four or five scenarios for international crisis and the source of the crisis will be Middle East, Afghanistan, North Korea or the Russian Federation. However, the senator also talked about Pakistan who is «bristling with nuclear weapons» and of course about Al Qaeda. According to Baiden, Obama will have to clean Aegean stables in the US economy because of its current crisis is not only financial but is systemic in its nature. Therefore Baiden called the audience to harder “Gird your loins”. Simply put - tighten the belts harder because there are hard times ahead. The answer, according to several analysts, is clear: a repetition of 9/11.

Returning to the first black president in US history, there are a lot of problems that he will have to address, without any guarantee of success: finding way out of financial crisis, the restoration of #1 economy competitiveness and much more. And in the geopolitics he faces task of normalizing relations with other parts of the world: whether with the Muslim world, where American prestige has fallen below plinths, Latin America, where followers of Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez for the first time since the 1960’s once again are gaining popularity, or India, where strong tradition of neutrality and the dictates of the US rejection are major principle, finally, Europe, which seek to distance themselves from intrusive surgery Uncle Sam and play their own independent game. Only hungry, writhe bloody conflicts, poor Africa, where the elected president with Kenyan roots caused a storm of delight supports US. But the support and sympathy from «Black continent» unlikely to be able to compensate for at least a fraction of United States weight losses.
This way not only the global financial system, but all modern world structure is entering a strip of high turbulence. Changes are coming. This means that mankind is on the verge of big tests. Distinctive feature of the new era will be sunset America, and with it Western civilization, renaissance of the East - a process which will be accompanied by a high proportion of uncertainty and conflicts in the international system of coordinates. New rules of conduct will be written, new standards may have been developed, there might be replacement of the helpless UN with new universal structure, designed to save the world from universal catastrophe. One thing is clear - only the strongest would be able to survive changes that are yet to come.
Well, the prophecy of the Soviet leaders of the rot West and imminent collapse of capitalism seem to become true. It is only pity that builders of communism throughout the world do not have chance to observe this wonderful moment.